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Key Logic 

Multiple analysts, including those from BofA, BNPP Exane, and J.P. Morgan, posit that recent positive developments in the semiconductor industry, particularly the substantial AI chip manufacturing agreement between Samsung and Tesla, coupled with the tariff exemption for semiconductor equipment between the United States and the European Union, collectively present a favorable outlook for the broader semiconductor capital equipment (semicaps) sector. These events are anticipated to significantly boost market demand, order volumes, and industry visibility for key equipment suppliers such as ASML, ASM International, and Besi. This comes despite Samsung Electronics facing intense competition and technological hurdles from TSMC in the AI chip manufacturing space (as reported by Reuters), and Intel's downward revision of its capital expenditure (capex) guidance being largely in line with market expectations. Furthermore, BNPP Exane suggests that the deeper implications of the Samsung-Tesla collaboration may lie in the U.S.'s strategic aim to reduce reliance on Taiwan and advance domestic advanced process chip manufacturing capabilities.

Samsung-Tesla Collaboration: Reshaping the AI Chip Foundry Landscape 

• Tesla announced that Samsung will produce its next-generation AI6 chips at the new Taylor fab in Taylor, Texas. This is a deal valued at up to $16.5bn (approximately KRW 22.8tn) and is expected to run until the end of 2033.
  • BofA views this partnership as a positive development, considering the previously low market expectations for Samsung's foundry business, potentially signaling a resurgence of Samsung's foundry ambitions.
  • J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that while this transaction was previously rumored, its scale and magnitude significantly exceeded market expectations.
  • Reuters reported that Samsung Electronics announced on July 28, 2025, the signing of this $1.65bn chip supply agreement with an unnamed global major company. The agreement, signed on Saturday, pertains to contract chip manufacturing and its specific details remain confidential until the end of 2033. Samsung's shares consequently rose by 3.5%.
• Technical Details and Capacity Implications:
  • The AI6 chip is expected to utilize a 2-3nm (per BofA) or 2nm (per BNPP Exane) process node, and may incorporate chiplet architecture and hybrid bonding technologies.
  • Production is slated to commence in late 2027, with initial orders for semicaps anticipated to be placed between 2H26E and 1H27E (per BofA). J.P. Morgan noted that the Timing and phasing, placement, and revenue recognition of these orders remain unclear.
  • BNPP Exane forecasts that ASML will install 5 EUV tools in fiscal year 2026, with this deal mitigating the risk of Samsung's 2nm investment at the Taylor fab, which is projected to achieve high-volume production in Q4 2026.
  • The first phase of the Taylor fab is designed for a maximum capacity of 25kwspm (thousand wafers per month), though actual construction might be limited to 15-20kwspm. Based on an annual run-rate of $2bn, this agreement is expected to consume half of the factory's capacity (per BNPP Exane).
  • At full utilization, the Samsung Taylor fab would require approximately c15 EUV low-NA tools, but this would necessitate more customers to support such capacity (per BofA).
• Positive Implications for Semicaps Companies:
  • This collaboration is beneficial for semicaps companies such as ASML, BESI, ASMI (per BofA, BNPP Exane), and ASM International (per J.P. Morgan), supporting their medium-term growth expectations (per J.P. Morgan).
• TSLA's Chip Strategy and Samsung's Challenges:
  • TSLA's AI5 chip is currently being tape-out at TSMC, while the AI6 targets production on Samsung's 2nm process. Elon Musk has indicated deep involvement in yield improvement efforts at the Texas factory (per BNPP Exane).
  • Reuters highlighted that Samsung faces fierce competition and technological challenges from TSMC in the AI chip manufacturing race, impacting its profitability and share price. Analysts suggest that this order is unlikely to involve Samsung's most cutting-edge 2nm technology, and it remains unclear how this order will affect Samsung's production schedule at its new Texas factory, which has experienced some delays due to its inability to secure major clients.

US-EU Trade Agreement: Semiconductor Equipment Tariff Exemption Boosts Market Certainty 

• The United States and the European Union have reached a framework trade agreement stipulating a maximum tariff rate of 15% on EU imports, but semiconductor equipment is categorized as a "strategic product" and thus qualifies for "zero-for-zero tariff" treatment (per J.P. Morgan, European Commission).
  • BNPP Exane noted that the agreement signed between the EU and the US will impose a 15% tariff on European semiconductor products, but WFE (wafer fab equipment) is expected to be exempt or minimally impacted.
  • The agreement is projected to take effect from August 1.
• Positive Impact on the Semiconductor Equipment Industry:
  • Given the growing advanced logic manufacturing activity in the US (including TSMC and Samsung fabs), and ASML's US memory customers, this exemption is favorable for ASML (where 17% of its FY24 system sales originated from the US) (per BofA, J.P. Morgan).
  • This is also a positive development for ASMI (where 21% of its FY24 US revenue originated) and other semicaps companies (per BofA).
  • ASML stated in its Q2 earnings report that customers had hesitated on tool orders for new fabs in the US due to potential tariff risks on semiconductor equipment (per J.P. Morgan).
  • BNPP Exane believes that the tariff exemption is a minor positive for European WFE companies (such as ASML, ASMI, Besi, Aixtron), aligning with the policy objectives of localizing semiconductor manufacturing in the US.
• Deeper Implications and Market Certainty:
  • ASMI has already begun manufacturing some tools domestically in the US to circumvent tariffs, thus limiting the overall impact (per BNPP Exane).
  • J.P. Morgan analysts believe that the intention to exempt strategic products in the US-EU agreement could serve as a precedent for other trade agreements, providing a positive read-across effect for European semiconductor equipment companies. This eliminates uncertainty and costs, potentially supporting order volumes in future quarters.
  • Additionally, this trade agreement provides greater market certainty, which should support end-market demand and enhance visibility for semiconductor and semicap suppliers (per BofA).
• Impact on Non-WFE European Semiconductor Companies:
  • IFX and STM have not yet received exemptions and still face 15% tariffs (per BNPP Exane, J.P. Morgan) as they do not fall under the WFE category. Any potential exemptions might await the results of the Section 232 investigation.
  • BofA noted that the US is expected to announce the results of the 232 trade investigations and semiconductor tariff rates within the next two weeks.

Intel Capital Expenditure Guidance Revision: An Expected Adjustment 

• Intel stated in its Q2 results that its 2026 capital expenditure (capex) would be lower than 2025 (with 2025 capex maintained at $18bn) (per BofA).
  • This move aims to streamline its equipment utilization and reduce costs.
  • VA css's forecast for 2026 capex was $17.1bn (per BofA).
• Market Impact:
  • BofA indicated that this news was not surprising and likely priced in by the market, as they had previously lowered their procurement estimates for Intel to 0/0 low-NA and 1/1 high-NA tools for 2026/27E.
• Intel's Long-Term Commitment:
  • Despite the revised guidance, Intel remains committed to ramping its 18A node to volume production within the next decade and making progress on yield (per BofA).

Deeper Implications of the Samsung-TSLA Deal: Foreshadowing Broader Semiconductor Tariffs 

• BNPP Exane suggests that the timing of the Samsung-TSLA deal is noteworthy, given widespread reports of Samsung's 2nm yield challenges.
  • This implies that Elon Musk may foresee broader semiconductor tariffs targeting Taiwan and is preemptively positioning Tesla accordingly.
  • Currently, TSMC's US production capacity is limited, and based on existing plans, its technology nodes will only reach a maximum of n-2 node.
  • Due to robust demand for TSMC's advanced capacity, for companies that are not TSMC's priority clients, the only options for cutting-edge process technology domestically in the US are Samsung and Intel.
• This collaboration could signify the US's push to bolster its domestic advanced process manufacturing capabilities, thereby reducing reliance on specific overseas supply chains.

CN 

Key Logic 

多方分析师（包括BofA、BNPP Exane和J.P. Morgan）认为，近期半导体行业出现的多项积极进展，尤其是Samsung与Tesla达成巨额AI芯片代工合作，以及美国和欧盟之间半导体设备关税的豁免，共同构成了对半导体资本设备（semicaps）行业整体利好的局面。这些事件有望显著提升ASML、ASM International、Besi等关键设备公司的市场需求、订单量和行业能见度，尽管Samsung Electronics在AI芯片制造领域面临来自TSMC的激烈竞争和技术挑战（据Reuters报道），且Intel的资本支出指引下调在市场预期之内。此外，BNPP Exane指出，Samsung-Tesla合作的更深层含义可能在于美国旨在减少对Taiwan的依赖，并推动美国本土先进制程芯片的制造能力。

Samsung与Tesla合作：重塑AI芯片代工格局 

• Tesla宣布Samsung将在其位于Taylor, Texas的Taylor fab新工厂生产下一代AI6芯片，这是一项价值高达$16.5bn（约合KRW 22.8tn）的交易，预计将持续到2033年底。
  • BofA认为，鉴于此前市场对Samsung foundry business的预期较低，此次合作被视为一项积极进展，可能预示着Samsung foundry ambitions的回归。
  • J.P. Morgan分析师指出，该交易此前虽有传闻，但其规模和体量远超市场预期。
  • Reuters报道称，Samsung Electronics于2025年7月28日宣布与一家未具名的全球主要公司签署了这项价值$16.5亿的芯片供应协议，该协议于周六签署，属于合同芯片制造业务，具体细节在2033年底前保密。Samsung股价因此上涨了3.5%。
• 技术细节与产能影响：
  • 预计AI6芯片将采用2-3nm（BofA）或2nm（BNPP Exane）工艺节点，并可能使用chiplet architecture和hybrid bonding技术。
  • 生产预计将于late 2027开始，而对semicaps的初步订单将分布在2H26E至1H27E之间（BofA）。J.P. Morgan指出，订单的Timing and phasing、placement及revenue recognition尚不明确。
  • BNPP Exane预计ASML在2026财年将有5台EUV设备安装，这笔交易降低了Samsung在Taylor fab 2nm投资的风险，该工厂预计在2026年第四季度实现大批量生产。
  • Taylor fab一期设计的最大产能为25kwspm（千片晶圆/月），但实际可能只建设15-20kwspm。根据每年$2bn的运行速度，该协议预计将占据该工厂一半的产能（BNPP Exane）。
  • 在满负荷生产情况下，Samsung Taylor晶圆厂将需要大约c15台EUV low-NA tools，但这需要更多客户来支持（BofA）。
• 对semicaps公司的利好：
  • 此次合作对ASML、BESI、ASMI（BofA、BNPP Exane）及ASM International（J.P. Morgan）等semicaps公司构成利好，将支撑其中期增长预期（J.P. Morgan）。
• TSLA的芯片策略与Samsung面临的挑战：
  • TSLA的AI5芯片目前已在TSMC流片，而AI6则目标在Samsung的2nm工艺上生产。Elon Musk表示将深入参与Texas工厂的良率提升工作（BNPP Exane）。
  • Reuters指出，Samsung在AI芯片制造竞赛中面临来自TSMC的激烈竞争和技术挑战，这对其利润和股价造成了冲击。分析师表示，该订单不太可能涉及Samsung最尖端的2nm技术，且目前尚不清楚这项订单将如何影响Samsung在Texas新工厂的投产计划，该工厂因未能争取到主要客户而有所延迟。

美欧贸易协定：半导体设备关税豁免提升市场确定性 

• 美国和欧盟达成了一项框架贸易协议，规定对欧盟进口商品征收最高15%的关税税率，但半导体设备被视为“战略产品”，因此享受“零关税”（zero-for-zero tariff）待遇（J.P. Morgan、European Commission）。
  • BNPP Exane指出，欧盟与美国之间签署的协议将对欧洲半导体产品带来15%的关税，但WFE（晶圆厂设备）预计能幸免或受影响有限。
  • 该协议预计自8月1日起生效。
• 对半导体设备行业的利好：
  • 鉴于美国日益增长的先进逻辑制造活动（包括TSMC和Samsung的晶圆厂），以及ASML的美国存储客户，此项豁免对ASML（其FY24 system sales的17%来自美国）是利好（BofA、J.P. Morgan）。
  • 对于ASMI（其FY24美国收入占比21%）以及其他semicaps公司来说，这也是一项积极发展（BofA）。
  • ASML在Q2财报中曾表示，客户因半导体设备可能面临关税风险，对在美国新建晶圆厂的工具订单存在犹豫（J.P. Morgan）。
  • BNPP Exane认为，对欧洲WFE公司（如ASML、ASMI、Besi、Aixtron）而言，豁免关税是小幅利好，与美国本地化半导体制造的政策目标一致。
• 深层影响与市场确定性：
  • ASMI已开始在美国本土制造部分工具，以规避关税，因此影响有限（BNPP Exane）。
  • J.P. Morgan分析师认为，US-EU协议中对战略产品豁免关税的意图，有望在其他贸易协议中得到借鉴，对欧洲半导体设备公司具有积极的read-across效应，消除了不确定性和成本，有望在未来季度支撑订单量。
  • 此外，该贸易协定提供了更高的市场确定性，这应能支持终端市场需求，并提高半导体和semicap供应商的能见度（BofA）。
• 对非WFE欧洲半导体公司的影响：
  • IFX和STM目前没有获得豁免，仍面临15%关税（BNPP Exane、J.P. Morgan），因为它们不属于WFE范畴。任何豁免可能要等到Section 232 investigation的结果公布。
  • BofA指出，美国预计将在未来two weeks内公布232 trade investigations的结果和半导体关税税率。

Intel资本支出指引下调：市场预期内的调整 

• Intel在其Q2 results中表示，其2026年资本支出（capex）将低于2025年（2025年维持在$18bn）（BofA）。
  • 此举旨在降低成本并消化此前购买的设备。
  • VA css对2026年capex的预期为$17.1bn（BofA）。
• 市场影响：
  • BofA指出，由于其此前已将对Intel的采购估值下调至2026/27E的0/0 low-NA和1/1 high-NA tools，因此这一消息并不令人意外，且可能已在市场价格中得到体现。
• Intel的长期承诺：
  • 尽管Intel下调了指引，但其仍致力于在未来decade内将其18A node提升至规模化生产，并在良率方面取得进展（BofA）。

Samsung-TSLA交易背后的更深层含义：预示更广泛的半导体关税 

• BNPP Exane认为，Samsung与TSLA这笔交易的签订时机值得关注，因为此前有广泛报道称Samsung的2nm良率面临挑战。
  • 这暗示Musk可能预见到针对Taiwan的更广泛半导体关税即将到来，并以此提前布局。
  • 目前，TSMC在美国的产能有限，且根据现有计划，其技术节点最多只能达到n-2。
  • 由于对TSMC先进产能的需求旺盛，对于那些并非TSMC优先客户的公司而言，在美国本土获得尖端技术制程的选择只有Samsung和Intel。
• 此次合作可能意味着美国正在推动其本土的先进制程制造能力，以减少对特定海外供应链的依赖。