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Gao Xu - Analysis of Ray Dalio's Macroeconomic Debt Methodology - 徐高 - 达利欧宏观经济债务分析方法论的局限性与正确认知路径

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Key Logic 

The author of this article (Gao Xu) posits that Ray Dalio harbors a fundamental methodological error in analyzing national debt issues, specifically by erroneously applying the debt analysis logic applicable to microeconomic entities (individuals and corporations)—where cash flow must cover principal and interest—to macroeconomic entities (nations). Furthermore, he mechanically views the macroeconomy as a machine with immutable operating parameters. This leads Ray Dalio to fail to recognize that the true determinants of national debt constraints are a country's productive capacity (overcapacity/insufficient domestic demand) and, for the United States, the more crucial "United States Dollar Hegemony". Consequently, he misjudges the debt risks of both the United States and China. The author emphasizes that understanding the macroeconomy necessitates discarding intuition and common sense in favor of logic and academic rigor, acknowledging the complexity and dynamic nature of macroeconomic operations.

Three Levels of Thought in Understanding Debt Issues 

  • First-Level Thinking: Microeconomic Perspective
    • Definition: Applicable to the debt analysis of microeconomic entities (individuals or corporations).
    • Core Logic: The premise for debt sustainability is that the entity's cash flow can, at any given time, cover its debt's principal and interest payments.
    • Ray Dalio's View: Ray Dalio's assertion that "whether debt generates enough income to pay for its servicing" is a critical criterion for judging debt sustainability, aligning with microeconomic thinking.
  • Second-Level Thinking: Macroeconomic Perspective
    • Definition: Applicable to the analysis of national debt issues, where microeconomic thinking is no longer appropriate.
    • Core Logic: A nation's debt constraint lies not in its cash flow, but in its productive capacity.
      • The government serves as a nation's last line of defense against debt crisis; a country's debt sustainability critically depends on the sustainability of its government debt.
      • Microeconomic entities' cash flows are exogenously given and represent a hard constraint; national governments possess the right to issue their domestic currency, making domestic currency cash flow endogenous and allowing for the repayment of domestic currency debt through money creation.
      • Special Case: Eurozone Countries: Eurozone countries' currency issuance rights are stripped by the European Central Bank, thus preventing them from repaying their domestic debt by issuing their own currency, as seen in the 2011 "Eurozone Debt Crisis".
      • Constraints on Monetary Expansion: Whether monetary expansion leads to macroeconomic instability, in turn, constrains currency issuance.
        • Countries with Excessive Domestic Demand and Insufficient Capacity: Monetary expansion would lead to rising inflation or trigger an external debt crisis (e.g., Thailand, Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis, as foreign debt is denominated in United States Dollar).
        • Countries with Insufficient Domestic Demand and Overcapacity:
          • No external debt problems, due to perennial trade surpluses.
          • Monetary expansion will not lead to excessive inflation (rather, it alleviates deflation), and the government can repay domestic currency debt by issuing domestic currency, which aligns with the descriptions of Modern Monetary Theory.
          • In this scenario, the size of domestic debt has no inherent connection to a debt crisis, with some loosely claiming "domestic debt is not debt."
        • Debt and Savings Relationship: Debt serves as a conduit channeling savings into investment; judging whether debt is excessive requires comparing the scale of savings and debt. If domestic savings exceed domestic debt, then even substantial debt is "insufficient."
        • Insufficient Effective Demand: Fundamentally, this is an income distribution issue, leading to a mismatch between purchasing power and expenditure desires; monetary expansion helps deploy excess savings and stabilize the macroeconomy.
  • Third-Level Thinking: International Monetary System Perspective

Two Major Errors in Ray Dalio's Methodology 

The author argues that Ray Dalio made two significant errors in analyzing macroeconomic issues, leading to many of his misconceptions regarding national debt.

  • Error One: Erroneously Applying Microeconomic Thinking to Macroeconomic Problems
  • Error Two: Erroneously Viewing the Macroeconomy as a Machine
    • Manifestation: Ray Dalio believes the macroeconomy is like a machine, where specific actions invariably lead to specific outcomes. This was evident in his 2008 work, "How the Economic Machine Works", and reiterated in his latest "The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail".
    • Problem: This mechanistic research approach has been abandoned by economists for over half a century because the macroeconomy's internal structure and operating parameters change with operational methods and human expectations.
    • Example: Disappearance of the Phillips Curve:
      • From the 1950s to the 1960s, the Phillips Curve existed (inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment), due to public expectations of low inflation.
      • Entering the 1970s, when governments tried to use the Phillips Curve to boost inflation to reduce unemployment, public expectations changed. High inflation was no longer seen as a sign of economic improvement, leading to the disappearance of the Phillips Curve and Western countries falling into "stagflation."
      • Insight: Causal relationships and reactive behaviors in the macroeconomy change with environmental shifts. One cannot simply assume that central bank money printing will inevitably lead to currency devaluation; the consequences depend on the macroeconomic conditions (especially whether there is insufficient demand).
    • Other Manifestations: Ray Dalio proposes a "3% Solution" (reducing the fiscal deficit as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product to 3%), believing there is an optimal level for fiscal deficits.
      • The author considers this "asking the wrong question," as reasonable fiscal deficits and debt levels depend on macroeconomic conditions, and seeking a universally applicable standard is "futile and extremely harmful."
    • Summary: Ray Dalio's methodological errors are the fundamental reason for his "seemingly plausible but ultimately misleading" conclusions, which are more deceptive than "obviously false" views like "debt is opium."

Ray Dalio's Misjudgments on National Debt Cases 

Due to his methodological errors, Ray Dalio has misjudged the debt risks of multiple countries.

  • Misjudgment of United States Debt Risk
  • Misjudgment of China Debt Risk
    • Ray Dalio's View: On page 248 of "The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail", Ray Dalio believes China's debt level is too high and requires "harmonious deleveraging."
    • Author's Rebuttal: Ray Dalio fails to recognize the rationality and necessity of debt accumulation in China's current environment of insufficient demand and excess savings.
      • In recent years, overly stringent deleveraging measures in China have suppressed the reasonable growth of debt, hindered the conversion of domestic savings into investment, and instead exacerbated insufficient demand pressure, placing significant downward pressure on economic growth and prices.
      • China's debt rollover issue is not due to excessive debt, but rather severe deleveraging artificially created liquidity problems.
      • When deleveraging has already impacted the macroeconomy, what is needed is a correction of deleveraging ideology, not more deleveraging.

The Correct Path to Understanding Macroeconomics 

  • Recognizing Ignorance of Macroeconomics
    • Limitations of Intuition and Common Sense: People's daily experiences are microeconomic in nature and cannot reflect the logic of macroeconomic operation. Macroeconomic operation is often "counter-intuitive and counter-commonsensical."
    • Paul Krugman's View: In his November 4, 2014 article, "Does a Successful Businessman Understand Macroeconomics", Paul Krugman points out that "countries are not companies," and national policies must consider feedback not commonly encountered in business life (e.g., domestic goods and services are primarily sold to domestic residents).
    • Comparison of Companies and Nations:
      • Companies: When market demand declines, companies should cut expenses and reduce costs and increase efficiency, because increased employee income will not significantly change market demand.
      • Nations: When a nation faces insufficient demand, the correct approach is to expand spending (e.g., government distributing money to residents), due to a "boomerang effect" (feedback between expenditure and income), which can stimulate economic recovery, increase fiscal revenue, and even lead to counter-intuitive situations where "money spent generates more."
    • Summary: The first step to understanding macroeconomics is acknowledging one's ignorance and avoiding the direct application of microeconomic analysis thinking to macroeconomic analysis.
  • Discarding Intuition and Common Sense, Emphasizing Logic and Scholarship
    • Macroeconomic analysis should "talk less about intuition, more about logic," because logic helps grasp unfamiliar macroeconomic subjects; "be cautious about common sense, emphasize scholarship," because common sense formed about the macroeconomy is often microeconomic common sense, which does not reflect macroeconomic operating logic.
  • Critically Studying Economic Theories
    • One cannot simply adopt the views of a single school or faction. For instance, current mainstream Western macroeconomics is dominated by the "new-neoclassical synthesis" paradigm, which essentially understands the macroeconomy as microeconomics. Its models' tools like "representative consumer" and "representative firm" struggle to reflect macroeconomic feedback effects.
    • This theoretical paradigm is suitable for supply-constrained Western economies but not for demand-constrained China.
    • To truly understand China's economy, one must break free from Western paradigms, draw insights from different economic schools of thought, and seek tight constraints and core logic from the dialectical relationship between supply and demand.

#ray_dalio #macroeconomics #debt #debt_crisis #economic_machine #micro_vs_macro #usd_hegemony #mmt #phillips_curve #economic_policy #china_economy #us_economy #financial_risk #economic_theory #critical_thinking

CN 

徐高 - 达利欧的国家债务认知错在哪里？（9千字） - 20250724 

Key Logic 

该文章作者认为，Ray Dalio在分析国家债务问题时存在根本性的方法论错误，即错误地将微观经济主体（个人与企业）的债务分析逻辑（现金流覆盖本息）套用到宏观经济体（国家）上，并且机械地将宏观经济视为一台运行参数不变的机器。这导致Ray Dalio未能认识到国家债务约束的真正决定因素是其生产能力（产能过剩/内需不足）以及对美国而言更重要的“美元霸权”，从而对美国和中国的债务风险做出了误判。作者强调，理解宏观经济需要摒弃直觉和常识，转而侧重逻辑和学识，并认识到宏观经济运行的复杂性和动态性。

理解债务问题的三个思维层次 

  • 第一层次思维：微观思维层次
    • 定义：适用于微观经济主体（个人或企业）的债务分析。
    • 核心逻辑：债务可持续的前提条件是该主体的现金流能在任何时点上覆盖其债务的本息支出。
    • 达利欧的观点：Ray Dalio所说的“债务是否创造了足够的收入来支付偿债费用”是判断债务是否可持续的关键标准，这符合微观思维。
  • 第二层次思维：宏观思维层次
    • 定义：适用于国家债务问题分析，微观思维不再适用。
    • 核心逻辑：一个国家的债务约束不在于现金流，而在于其生产能力。
      • 政府是国家在债务危机前的最后一道防线；一国的债务可持续性关键在于其政府债务的可持续性。
      • 微观主体现金流外生给定，是硬约束；国家政府拥有本币货币发行权，本币现金流是内生的，可通过印钞偿还本币债务。
      • 特例：欧元区国家：欧元区国家的货币发行权被欧央行剥夺，因此无法通过发行本币偿还本国债务，如2011年的“欧债危机”。
      • 增发货币的约束：增发货币是否会导致宏观经济失稳，反过来约束货币发行。
        • 内需过剩、产能不足的国家：增发货币会导致通胀上行或引发外债危机（如亚洲金融危机中的泰国、马来西亚，因为外债需用美元计价偿付）。
        • 内需不足、产能过剩的国家：
          • 不会有外债问题，因长年有贸易顺差。
          • 增发货币不会带来过高通胀（反而缓解通缩），政府可通过发行本币偿还国内本币债务，这符合MMT的描述。
          • 在这种情况下，内债规模与债务危机无必然联系，甚至有人不严格地称“内债不是债”。
        • 债务与储蓄关系：债务是将储蓄导向投资的通道；判断债务过量与否需对比储蓄和债务规模。若国内储蓄规模高于国内债务规模，则债务再多也“不足”。
        • 有效需求不足：根本上是收入分配问题，导致购买力和支出欲望错配；增发货币有助于将过剩储蓄运用起来，稳定宏观经济。
  • 第三层次思维：国际货币体系思维层次
    • 定义：专门针对美国的债务问题。
    • 核心逻辑：美国作为美元这一主要国际储备货币的发行国，可以用本币借外债，其债务约束不在供给能力，而在于“美元霸权”。
      • 美国可以增发美元偿还其外债，因此尽管国债规模高且长期有贸易逆差，其债务危机风险仍极低。
      • 只有威胁“美元霸权”的事件才会给美国带来债务风险，如产业空心化和“对等关税”政策。

达利欧方法论的两个严重错误 

作者认为Ray Dalio在分析宏观经济问题时犯了两个严重错误，导致其对国家债务的诸多错误认知。

  • 错误一：错误地用微观思维分析宏观问题
    • 表现：Ray Dalio将“债务创造的收益能否覆盖债务成本”这一微观判断标准套用到国家债务分析，导致其分析始终停留在第一层微观思维中。
    • 影响：未能识别美国之外国家的债务约束在于供给能力，以及美国的债务约束在于“美元霸权”，这在达利欧的《国家为什么会破产》（36万字）一书中未被点出。
  • 错误二：错误地将宏观经济视为一台机器
    • 表现：Ray Dalio认为宏观经济像一台机器，特定行为必然产生特定后果，这在早在2008年的《经济机器是怎样工作的》中已体现，并在达利欧最新的《国家为什么会破产》中重申。
    • 问题所在：机械论研究方法已被经济学家们抛弃半个多世纪，因为宏观经济的内部结构和运行参数会随操作方式和人的预期而改变。
    • 例子：菲利普斯曲线的消失：
      • 在20世纪50年代至60年代，菲利普斯曲线存在（通胀与失业率负相关），因为民众预期低通胀。
      • 进入20世纪70年代，政府利用菲利普斯曲线试图推高通胀以降低失业率时，民众预期改变，高通胀不再视为经济向好信号，导致菲利普斯曲线消失，西方国家陷入“滞胀”。
      • 启示：宏观经济中的因果联系和反应行为会因环境变化而变化，不能简单地认为央行印钞必然导致本币贬值，其后果取决于宏观经济运行状况（尤其是否处于需求不足）。
    • 其他体现：达利欧提出“3%解决方案”（财政赤字占GDP比重削减至3%），认为财政赤字应有最合理水平。
      • 作者认为这是“问错了问题”，因为合理的财政赤字和债务规模取决于宏观经济状况，试图寻找放之四海而皆准的标准是“徒劳无功且危害极大”。
    • 总结：达利欧的方法论错误是其得出“似是而非”结论的根本原因，相比“债务就是鸦片”等“一眼假”的观点，更具迷惑性。

达利欧对国家债务的误判案例 

由于其方法论的错误，达利欧对多国的债务风险做出了误判。

  • 对美国债务风险的误判
    • 达利欧观点：在《国家为什么会破产》第289页，达利欧判断美国政府长期债务风险“非常高”，认为其正接近“不可逆转的临界点”，将引发“债务‘死亡螺旋’”。
    • 作者反驳：这种判断源于微观思维。若理解“美元霸权”对美国国债的支撑作用，就不会仅从国债规模做出悲观判断。除非美国政府自我削弱世界对美元的信心，否则美国国债并未接近引发“死亡螺旋”的临界点。
  • 对中国债务风险的误判
    • 达利欧观点：在《国家为什么会破产》第248页，达利欧认为中国债务规模过高，需要“和谐的去杠杆化”。
    • 作者反驳：达利欧未注意到中国当前需求不足、储蓄过剩环境下债务累积的合理性与必要性。
      • 近些年中国国内过于严厉的去杠杆举措，抑制了债务的合理增长，阻碍了国内储蓄向投资的转化，反而加重了需求不足压力，给经济增长和物价带来沉重下行压力。
      • 中国债务接续问题并非因债务过多，而是严厉去杠杆人为制造了流动性问题。
      • 在去杠杆已冲击宏观经济时，需要的是对去杠杆思想的纠偏，而非更多去杠杆。

理解宏观经济的正确路径 

  • 认识到对宏观经济的无知
    • 直觉与常识的局限性：人们日常生活经验是微观性的，无法反映宏观经济运行逻辑。宏观经济运行往往“反直觉、反常识”。
    • 克鲁格曼的观点：在2014年11月4日的《成功的商人不懂宏观经济》一文中，克鲁格曼指出“国家并不是公司”，国家政策需考虑商业生活中不常遇到的反馈（如国内商品和服务主要售给国内居民）。
    • 公司与国家的对比：
      • 公司：市场需求回落时，公司应削减开支、降本增效，因为员工收入增加不会显著改变市场需求。
      • 国家：国家陷入需求不足时，正确举措是扩张开支（如政府给居民发钱），因存在“回旋镖效应”（支出与收入间反馈），可带动经济回暖、财政收入增加，甚至出现“钱越花越有”的反直觉情况。
    • 总结：理解宏观经济的第一步是认识到自身无知，避免将微观经济分析思维照搬到宏观经济分析。
  • 摒弃直觉和常识，重视逻辑和学识
    • 宏观分析要“少谈直觉、多讲逻辑”，因为逻辑有助于把握不熟悉的宏观对象；“慎谈常识、多讲学识”，因为人们对宏观经济形成的常识往往是微观常识，不反映宏观运行逻辑。
  • 批判性地学习经济理论
    • 不能照搬某一家某一流派的观点，例如当前西方主流宏观经济学由“新-新古典综合”范式主导，本质上将宏观经济理解为微观经济，其模型中的“代表性消费者”、“代表性企业”工具难以反映宏观反馈效应。
    • 这种理论范式适用于供给不足的西方经济体，但不适用于需求不足的中国。
    • 要真正理解中国经济，需跳出西方范式束缚，从不同经济学流派中汲取养分，从供给和需求的辩证关系中寻找紧约束和核心逻辑。

#ray_dalio #macroeconomics #debt #debt_crisis #economic_machine #micro_vs_macro #usd_hegemony #mmt #phillips_curve #economic_policy #china_economy #us_economy #financial_risk #economic_theory #critical_thinking