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Key Observation 

In a macroeconomic environment fraught with uncertainties, Ferrari demonstrated solid performance and remarkable resilience in the second quarter of 2025 (Q2 2025). Analysts, including Morgan Stanley, highlighted Ferrari as a defensive "n of 1" investment, leveraging its unique brand positioning, robust order volumes, and high growth potential. Despite global economic uncertainties, Ferrari exhibited strong business resilience, underpinned by its robust order backlog, strong product demand, and unique market positioning. Management also underscored that the company's confidence in its business stems from the solidity and uniqueness of its business model, significant visibility, and loyal customer base, enabling it to effectively navigate macroeconomic challenges such as trade tensions, currency fluctuations, and financial market volatility, although not entirely immune to external shocks.

Net Revenues for the quarter were slightly below sell-side consensus (con.), yet adjusted diluted EPS, adjusted EBIT, and adjusted EBITDA all met or marginally exceeded analyst expectations. This was primarily driven by a favorable product and country mix, coupled with the significant contribution from highly personalized customization. The company successfully maintained shipments at substantially flat levels, focusing on brand exclusivity and a "deliberate regional allocation strategy," while its sponsorship, commercial, and brand revenues achieved significant growth. Notably, the robust order book extends into 2027 (not yet accounting for newly launched models), providing solid support for future growth prospects. Management also reiterated continuous investment in customer centricity, product excellence, and technological advancement.

Management reaffirmed its FY25 full-year guidance, expressing "stronger confidence," particularly due to agreements reached with the EU and US and lower-than-initially-anticipated industrial costs in the second half. This successfully mitigated the previously expected 50 bps margin risk from potential tariffs on European cars entering the U.S. market. This development directly addressed and alleviated previous key concerns of sell-side analysts, although the company stated it would not adjust commercial policy until the 15% new tariff officially takes effect. However, while Industrial FCF was emphasized by management as "very strong," it still came in below Bloomberg consensus, though above the lower €134 million market consensus previously cited by some sell-side firms. The company provided a detailed explanation of the driving factors behind this, primarily benefiting from EBITDA growth driven by industrial activities, partially offset by negative changes in capital expenditure and working capital (mainly related to higher inventory associated with production plans, offsetting a net positive impact from prepayments). Management noted that the first half once again underscored the importance of the company's 'agility' and 'flexibility,' emphasizing that "today's strong results reflect our disciplined and focused execution of our strategy. We continue to drive innovation and enrich our product portfolio, which further strengthens our already robust order book."

Market Reaction to Unchanged Guidance 

Similar to the 3Q24 earnings release, Ferrari's stock price experienced pressure on the earnings release day, declining by approximately 11%, as the company only used the phrase "stronger confidence" without explicitly raising guidance. Bernstein analysts suggested that, given the ongoing global economic uncertainties, they had not anticipated Ferrari to raise its guidance, and therefore considered the current market pressure an overreaction. However, BNP Paribas Exane noted that the market generally expected an FY25 guidance raise, but a neutral price/product mix and a slight decrease in volumes expected in the second half significantly reduced the likelihood of an upgrade, which was the main reason for the stock's decline. (For full content please see: Ferrari 2Q25 Earnings Review - Jason & his AI analyst)

CN 

Key Observation 

在充满不确定性的宏观经济环境下，Ferrari在2025年第二季度（Q2 2025）表现稳健且展现出显著韧性。Morgan Stanley等分析师强调，Ferrari凭借其独特的品牌地位、稳健的订单量和高增长潜力，是一个具有防御性的“n of 1”（独一无二）的投资标的。尽管全球经济存在不确定性，但Ferrari凭借其强劲的订单储备、旺盛的产品需求和独特的市场地位，表现出良好的业务韧性。管理层也强调，公司对业务的信心源于其业务模式的稳固性、独特性、显著的可见性以及忠诚的客户群体，使其能够有效应对贸易紧张、汇率波动和金融市场波动等宏观挑战，尽管它并非完全免疫外部冲击。

本季度净营收（Net Revenues）略低于卖方共识（con.），但其调整后稀释每股收益（adjusted diluted EPS）、调整后营业利润（adjusted EBIT）和调整后EBITDA均符合或略高于卖方预期，这主要得益于有利的产品与国家组合（product and country mix）以及高度个性化定制的贡献。公司成功地将出货量维持在实质持平，并专注于品牌独占性及“故意的地域分配策略”，同时其赞助、商业与品牌业务收入实现显著增长。尤其值得一提的是，强劲的订单储备已排至2027年（尚未计入新发布车型），这为未来的增长前景提供了坚实支撑。管理层也强调了对客户中心、产品卓越和技术投资的持续投入。

管理层重申了FY25全年指引，并表达了“更强的信心”，特别是通过与EU和US达成的协议以及下半年工业成本低于最初预期，成功消除了此前预期的、针对欧洲汽车进入美国市场关税可能带来的约50 bps的利润率风险。这一进展直接回应并缓解了卖方此前的主要担忧，尽管公司表示在15%新关税正式生效前暂不调整商业政策。然而，工业自由现金流（Industrial FCF）虽被管理层强调“非常强劲”，但仍低于Bloomberg共识，高于此前部分卖方提及的更低的€134 million市场共识。公司对此提供了详细的驱动因素解释，主要得益于工业活动带来的EBITDA增长，部分被资本支出和营运资本（主要与生产计划相关的更高库存有关，抵消了预付款项的净正向影响）的负向变化所抵消。管理层指出，上半年再次提醒了公司‘敏捷性’（agility）和‘灵活性’（flexibility）的重要性，并强调“今天的强劲业绩反映了我们纪律严明和专注地执行我们战略的承诺。我们持续推动创新并丰富我们的产品组合，这进一步巩固了我们本已强劲的订单储备。”

市场对未上调指引的反应 

与3Q24财报发布时类似，由于公司仅使用“更有信心”的措辞而未明确上调指引，Ferrari股价在财报发布当日面临压力，下跌约11%。Bernstein分析师认为，鉴于全球经济持续存在不确定性，并未预期Ferrari会上调指引，因此认为当前的市场压力是过度反应。然而，BNP Paribas Exane指出，市场普遍预期FY25指引会上调，但下半年价格/产品组合预计中性且销量将小幅下降，使得上调可能性大幅降低，这才是股价下跌的主要原因。(全文详见: Ferrari 2Q25 Earnings Review - Jason & his AI analyst)