EN 

Key Observation 

ASML's 2Q25 earnings report presents a stark contrast between strong current performance and cautious forward guidance. This quarter's results comprehensively exceeded market expectations and the company's own guidance, with total net sales of €7.69 billion (vs. con. €7.51 billion) and a gross margin as high as 53.7% (vs. con. 51.9%). This strong performance was primarily driven by higher-margin upgrade services and one-off cost savings. Net bookings rebounded strongly to €5.54 billion, significantly above the market consensus of €4.8 billion, demonstrating the resilience of current demand.

However, the most critical signal from this earnings report and conference call is management's prudent stance on the future outlook. The company's Q3 revenue guidance mid-point (€7.65 billion) is below the market consensus of €8.21 billion. Furthermore, the CEO, for the first time in official statements and conference calls, repeatedly emphasized that due to increasing uncertainties from macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors (especially potential tariff issues), it is currently unable to confirm growth for 2026. This cautious long-term outlook directly addresses and confirms the widespread concerns about mid-term growth highlighted by sell-side analysts in their earnings previews, forming the focal point of this earnings report and the core of analysts' repeated questions during the earnings call Q&A session.

Sell-side analysts generally believe that despite ASML's strong performance in revenue, gross margin, and bookings (especially for EUV and High NA EUV), and its maintenance of full-year growth guidance for 2025, the company's uncertainty regarding the 2026 growth outlook (downgraded from "able to confirm growth" to "unable to confirm growth") has raised widespread market concerns. This uncertainty primarily stems from macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical factors (such as tariffs), and challenges faced by some key customers (such as Intel and Samsung). Analysts have generally lowered their 2026/2027 earnings forecasts and target prices for ASML. Nevertheless, most institutions (e.g., Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Citi) have maintained Buy or Outperform ratings, based on ASML's long-term technological leadership and growth potential in High NA EUV, AI demand, and the DRAM market. Only Bernstein & MS hold a more pessimistic "Market-Perform" rating due to concerns about its long-term prospects and valuation premium. The China market remains a significant contributor to revenue in the short term, but its long-term evolution is subject to uncertainty. (see: Following | Substack for full content)

CN 

Key Observation 

ASML 2Q25财报呈现出当前业绩强劲与远期展望谨慎的鲜明对比。本季度业绩全面超出市场预期及公司自身指引，总营收为 €76.9亿 (vs. con. €75.1亿)，毛利率高达 53.7% (vs. con. 51.9%)，主要得益于高利润率的升级业务及一次性成本节约。净订单额强劲反弹至 €55.4亿，显著高于市场普遍预期的 €48亿，显示出当前需求的韧性。

然而，本次财报和电话会议最核心的信号是管理层对未来展望的审慎态度。公司给出的Q3营收指引中点 (€76.5亿) 低于市场共识的 €82.1亿，且CEO首次在官方声明及电话会议中反复强调，由于宏观经济和地缘政治（特别是潜在的关税问题）带来了日益增长的不确定性，现阶段无法确认2026年的增长。这一谨慎的远期展望直接回应并证实了卖方在财报预览中对中期增长的普遍担忧，构成了本次财报的焦点，也是业绩电话会问答环节中分析师们反复追问的核心。

卖方分析师普遍认为，尽管ASML在营收、毛利率和订单（尤其是EUV和High NA EUV）方面表现强劲，并维持了2025年全年增长指引，但公司对2026年增长前景的不确定性（已从“能确认增长”下调为“不能确认增长”）引发了市场普遍担忧。这种不确定性主要源于宏观经济、地缘政治（如关税）、以及部分关键客户（如Intel和Samsung）面临的挑战。分析师普遍下调了ASML 2026/2027年的盈利预测和目标价。尽管如此，多数机构（如BofA, Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Citi）仍基于ASML在High NA EUV、AI需求和DRAM市场中的长期技术领先地位和增长潜力，维持了买入或跑赢大市的评级。仅Bernstein&MS对其长期前景和估值溢价持更为悲观的“Market-Perform”评级。China市场在短期内仍是营收贡献的重要部分，但其长期演变充满不确定性。(全文: Following | Substack)